Turkey
Highlights
- Activity growth in the quarter driven by Turkish lira loans and deposits
- Year-on-year growth in recurring revenue and NTI
- Solid risk indicators
- Improved efficiency ratio
Business activity (1)
(VARIATION AT CONSTANT EXCHANGE RATE COMPARED TO 31-12-21)
(1) Excluding repos.
Net interest income/ AVERAGE TOTAL ASSETS
(Percentage at Constant exchange rate)
Operating income
(Millions of euros at constant exchange rate)
(1) At current exchange rate: +40.1%.
Net attributable profit (LOSS)
(Millions of euros at constant exchange rate)
(1) At current exchange rate: +30.6%.
Financial statements and relevant business indicators (Millions of euros and percentage)
| Income statement | 1Q22 | ∆% | ∆% (1) | 1Q21(2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 706 | 33.2 | 134.2 | 530 |
| Net fees and commissions | 132 | (14.7) | 50.0 | 154 |
| Net trading income | 175 | 39.2 | 144.7 | 126 |
| Other operating income and expenses | 15 | (40.0) | 5.5 | 24 |
| Gross income | 1,027 | 23.1 | 116.4 | 834 |
| Operating expenses | (230) | (13.4) | 52.3 | (265) |
| Personnel expenses | (130) | (8.0) | 61.6 | (142) |
| Other administrative expenses | (77) | (14.4) | 50.5 | (90) |
| Depreciation | (23) | (33.1) | 17.6 | (34) |
| Operating income | 797 | 40.1 | 146.4 | 569 |
| Impairment on financial assets not measured at fair value through profit or loss | (97) | (21.1) | 38.6 | (123) |
| Provisions or reversal of provisions and other results | (4) | n.s. | n.s. | 35 |
| Profit (loss) before tax | 696 | 44.7 | 154.4 | 481 |
| Income tax | (193) | 105.3 | 261.0 | (94) |
| Profit (loss) for the period | 503 | 30.0 | 128.6 | 387 |
| Non-controlling interests | (254) | 29.5 | 127.6 | (196) |
| Net attributable profit (loss) | 249 | 30.6 | 129.6 | 191 |
- (1)At constant exchange rate.
- (2) Restated balances. For more information, please refer to the “Business Areas” section.
| Balance sheets | 31-03-22 | ∆% | ∆% (1) | 31-12-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash, cash balances at central banks and other demand deposits | 7,926 | 2.1 | 9.1 | 7,764 |
| Financial assets designated at fair value | 5,178 | (2.1) | 4.6 | 5,289 |
| Of which: loans and advances | — | (99.9) | (99.8) | 295 |
| Financial assets at amortized cost | 43,624 | 5.0 | 12.2 | 41,544 |
| Of which: loans and advances to customers | 33,726 | 7.4 | 14.8 | 31,414 |
| Tangible assets | 607 | (2.6) | 4.1 | 623 |
| Other assets | 1,217 | 18.7 | 26.9 | 1,125 |
| Total assets/liabilities and equity | 58,551 | 4.1 | 11.3 | 56,245 |
| Financial liabilities held for trading and designated at fair value through profit or loss | 2,198 | (3.2) | 3.4 | 2,272 |
| Deposits from central banks and credit institutions | 3,677 | (10.0) | (3.8) | 4,087 |
| Deposits from customers | 40,157 | 4.7 | 11.9 | 38,341 |
| Debt certificates | 3,548 | (1.9) | 4.8 | 3,618 |
| Other liabilities | 2,568 | 18.6 | 26.7 | 2,166 |
| Regulatory capital allocated | 6,403 | 11.1 | 18.8 | 5,761 |
| Relevant business indicators | 31-03-22 | ∆% | ∆% (1) | 31-12-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Performing loans and advances to customers under management (2) | 32,979 | 7.7 | 15.2 | 30,610 |
| Non-performing loans | 3,072 | 2.6 | 9.6 | 2,995 |
| Customer deposits under management (2) | 40,155 | 4.7 | 12.0 | 38,335 |
| Off-balance sheet funds (3) | 4,422 | 13.5 | 21.3 | 3,895 |
| Risk-weighted assets | 49,589 | (0.3) | 6.6 | 49,718 |
| Efficiency ratio (%) | 22.4 | 29.5 | ||
| NPL ratio (%) | 6.7 | 7.1 | ||
| NPL coverage ratio (%) | 75 | 75 | ||
| Cost of risk (%) | 1.00 | 1.33 |
- (1) At constant exchange rate.
- (2) Excluding repos.
- (3) Includes mutual funds and pension funds.
Macro and industry trends
GDP grew strongly in the fourth quarter of 2021, contributing to an average annual growth of 11%, higher than previously estimated by BBVA Research. Relatively strong demand, high commodities prices, as well as the sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira following the interest rate cuts announced in recent months have contributed to a very significant increase in annual inflation to 61.1% in March 2022. According to BBVA Research's estimates, growth could moderate significantly to 2.5% in 2022 (compared to a previous forecast of 3.5%), partly due to the aftermath of the war between Ukraine and Russia. However, the economic environment is highly volatile given the combination of high inflation (on average it could be above 60% in 2022), very negative real interest rates, pressure on the Turkish lira and high external financing needs as well as the current global context.
With regard to the banking system, based on data as of February 2022, the total volume of lending in the system increased by 43.7% year-on-year in local currency (+27.0% in the Turkish lira portfolio and +76.0% in the foreign currency loan portfolio), while deposits grew by 60.5%, included in these growth rates are the effect of inflation and the depreciation of the Turkish lira. The system's NPL ratio stood at 3.02% in February 2021 (4.02% in February 2021 and 3.16% at the end of 2021).
Unless expressly stated otherwise, all comments below on rates of changes for both activity and income, will be presented at constant exchange rates. These rates, together with changes at current exchange rates, can be observed in the attached tables of the financial statements and relevant business indicators.
Activity
The most relevant aspects related to the area’s activity during the first three months of 2022 were:
- Lending activity (performing loans under management) increased by 15.2% between January and March 2022, driven by the growth in Turkish lira loans (+16.4%). This growth was mainly supported by commercial loans and backed by credit cards and consumer loans. Foreign currency loans (in U.S. dollars) increased in the first quarter of 2022 (+3.3%).
- In terms of asset quality, the NPL ratio decreased by 39 basis points to 6.7% compared to the end of December 2021, due to increased activity in the quarter. Growth in non-performing loans, with NPL flows where the entries of individualized cases were offset by recoveries, retail sales and the exchange rate effect. The NPL coverage ratio remained almost stable at 75% as of March 31, 2022.
- Customer deposits under management (69% of total liabilities in the area as of March 31, 2022) remained as the main source of funding for the balance sheet and increased by 12.0%. Especially noteworthy is the positive performance of Turkish lira time deposits (+32.7%), which represent 73.7% of total customer deposits in local currency, as well as demand deposits (+17.8%). Foreign currency deposits (in U.S. dollars) decreased by 7.1%. For its part, the evolution of off-balance sheet funds (+21.3%) also stood out.
Results
Turkey generated a net attributable profit of €249m in the first quarter of 2022, 129.6% higher than the same period of the previous year, supported by strong growth in recurring income, especially on the net interest income side, and higher contribution from NTI. Taking into account the effect of the depreciation of the Turkish lira over the period, the results generated by Turkey increased by 30.6%.
The most significant aspects of the year-on-year evolution in the area's income statement at the end of March 2022 were:
- Net interest income recorded significant growth (+134.2%), mainly due to larger loan volumes, mainly in Turkish lira loans, and the increase in the customer spread, as well as higher contribution from inflation-linked bonds. This was partly offset by higher financing costs.
- Net fees and commissions increased by 50.0% mainly driven by the positive performance in payment systems, money transfer, asset management, contingent commitments and Project Finance.
- NTI performed significantly well (+144.7%), mainly due to the earnings of the Global Markets unit, FX trading gains, as well as gains from derivatives transactions.
- Other operating income and expenses line increased by 5.5% in 2022, mainly due to the greater contribution of the subsidiaries of Garanti BBVA.
- Operating expenses grew by 52.3%, with increase in, both, personnel and general expenses, impacted by the higher inflation rate. Nevertheless, the efficiency ratio remained at a low level (22.4%), improving from March 2021 figure thanks to outstanding gross income evolution.
- Impairment on financial assets decreased by 21.1% at current exchange rates, with lower requirements in the individualized portfolio and good dynamics in the wholesale portfolio recoveries. As a result, the cumulative cost of risk at the end of March 2022 decreased to 1.00% from 1.33% recorded at the end of the previous year.
- The provisions and other results line closed March with a loss of €4m, compared to the profit of €35m recorded in the same period of the previous year, mainly due to higher provisions for special funds and contingent liabilities recorded in 2022.