Macroeconomic environment
In 2021, the global economy grew significantly, partly recovering from the pandemic-generated crisis, which led to a sharp drop in global GDP in 2020. The significant rebound in global growth was due to progress in vaccination against COVID-19 and the significant economic stimuli adopted by the authorities.
Activity indicators show that, despite a clear trend of moderation, economic growth remained at relatively high levels during the first half of 2022. The savings previously accumulated, the normalization of activity following the restrictions and disruptions generated by the pandemic, as well as the dynamism of labor markets, have contributed significantly the performance of private consumption and the service sector.
The relative resilience of demand, the persistence of disruptions in global supply chains and, mainly, the impact of the war in Ukraine on commodity prices have all reinforced pressures on inflation. This has caused inflation to continue to surprise on the upside (8.6% in the Eurozone and 9.1% in the US as of June 2022). Inflationary pressures are not only more persistent, but have spread to more types of goods and services in recent months.
Against this backdrop, central banks have responded by paving the way for aggressive tightening of monetary conditions in the future. In particular, the US Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) has raised policy rates by 150 basis points since the beginning of the year to 1.75% in June and started selling assets to reduce the size of its balance sheet. The Fed has also announced that interest rates will continue to rise in the coming months. According to BBVA Research, they are expected to reach around 4.0% by the beginning of 2023. In the Eurozone, the ECB at its monetary policy meeting in July, decided to raise official interest rates by 50 basis points. Refinancing rates are expected to converge to levels close to 2.0% in the coming months. The ECB's monetary tightening would therefore be less significant than what is expected to be implemented by the Fed. This is partly due to the fact that current demand pressures are lower in the Eurozone, where there are also concerns regarding financial fragmentation.
Although the current economic outlook is highly uncertain, BBVA Research's central scenario estimates that the global economy will slow down significantly in the near future, with possible episodes of recession in the United States and the Eurozone. The tightening on monetary conditions would be the main contributor to this slowdown in growth in a environment where commodity price and supply disruptions will continue to weigh negatively on activity.
According to BBVA Research, after rising 6.2% in 2021, global GDP will grow 3.4% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, down 0.6 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, from the previous estimate three months ago. In the US, growth would slow to 2.7% in 2022 and 0.7% in 2023, when strong monetary tightening would generate a mild recession. In the Eurozone, GDP is expected to see slight falls in the coming quarters, mainly due to the disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, including energy shortages. Annual growth in the region would be 2.7% in 2022 and 0.6% in 2023. China's economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace of 4.5% in 2022 and 5.2% in 2023. However, the continued implementation of strict measures to contain the spread of Coronavirus could lead to further restrictions on mobility, which could weigh on economic growth.
The risks around this central scenario are significant and have a downward bias on BBVA Research's growth forecasts. In particular, sustained inflation could trigger even stronger interest rates hikes and a deeper and more widespread recession, as well as financial crises and volatility.