The most probable global economic scenario for 2016 will be growth slightly above 3% for the fifth year in a row. These historically moderate levels offer limited and fragile prospects of improvement with downside risks.
Three events in 2015 will continue to characterize the global economic scenario in 2016:
- China's transition toward lower and sustainable rates of growth while it rebalances its economy with a greater weight of the service sector;
- the gradual and slow normalization of U.S. monetary policy, which is a benchmark for the financial markets, with rises in interest rates that make emerging markets less attractive and investment projects highly leveraged;
- the rebalancing of commodity prices at lower levels, due to increases in production and the expectations of lower growth in demand.
These uncertainties have led to a significant increase in the volatility of the financial markets, asset price falls and major currency depreciation in emerging countries.
Information on the macroeconomic and industry environment in each of the geographical areas where the Group operates have been mentioned in the Business Areas section above.