9. Economic outlook

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Uncertainty affects the forecasts for 2012. The slow pace of the resolution of the European debt crisis implies a downward correction of forecasts, particularly for developed economies. In addition, the deteriorating global conditions are dragging down the results of emerging economies. In a scenario of gradual resolution of the debt crisis, the global economy could grow by less than 4%, in line with the figure for 2011.

Once more, growth will vary greatly between the regions. Emerging Asia will be the engine of the global economy in 2012. In China GDP will only decline one percentage point, while in the rest of emerging Asia it will remain at around 5%. In contrast, Latin America will continue to slow down slightly and its rate of growth will be below 4%. In Turkey the slowdown could be more marked. Mexico will still grow at above 3% in 2012. The advanced economies will undoubtedly be the hardest hit in the forecasts. The euro zone is expected to grow below its potential, possibly posting a negative figure, as will the Spanish economy. Finally, in the United States GDP will grow by more than 2%, above the figure for 2011, but equally under the economy’s growth potential.

In any event, the risk balance in all the economies is slanted downward. The implications of a new outbreak of the European debt crisis could be severe.